The market capitalization of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) could reach approximately $2 trillion by 2030 in a base scenario, according to consulting giant McKinsey & Company. In a more optimistic scenario, the value might double to $4 trillion.
In a blog post, the New York City-headquartered firm states that this growth will likely be driven by the adoption of mutual funds, bonds, exchange-traded notes (ETNs), loans, securitization, and alternative funds. However, McKinsey analysts temper expectations by expressing skepticism about the bullish projection.
Discussing the rate and timing of adoption, the analysts suggest that both will likely “vary across asset classes” due to differences in “expected benefits, feasibility, time to impact, and market participants’ risk appetite.”
“Asset classes that have larger market value, higher friction along the value chain today, less mature traditional infrastructure, or lower liquidity are more likely to achieve outsize benefit from tokenization.”
McKinsey
McKinsey also considers a scenario where RWAs fail to gain the anticipated traction, yet still projects that the market capitalization could rise to around $1 trillion from current levels, as the industry remains in its “early stages of adoption.”
As of mid-June, the total market capitalization of RWAs stands at approximately $6.8 billion, according to CoinGecko data. Numerous startups in this sector, including Propy and ONDO Finance, have launched their offerings only after 2020, indicating that they are still in the early stages and that significant developments are expected in the future if all goes well.
Centrifuge, an infrastructure protocol for decentralized financing of real-world assets on the blockchain, was founded in 2017 but only secured $15 million in Series A funding in 2024, with investments from ParaFi Capital, Greenfield, Arrington Capital, and Circle Ventures, among others.
Despite the promising outlook, McKinsey cautions that the current landscape is still evolving. “There are risks as well as rewards for early movers,” the firm notes, emphasizing the lack of regulatory and legal clarity in many jurisdictions. McKinsey also highlights the necessity for the “widespread availability of wholesale tokenized cash and deposits for settlement,” which has yet to materialize.
